EV+ Game. Part 1

The expected value is a concept used to the described average outcome of the given scenario that hinges on an uncertain probabilistic event.

This simply means that a play is expected to be profitable in the long run and net me X amount of money. Easy. Is it?

Preflop is where you are forced to make your first important + EV decisions. Options are -

Aggressive actions

1. Raise First In (Bet)
2. 3bet,
3. Four bet,
4. Squeeze (multiway play),
5. Push all in preflop,

Passive actions

6) Call (limp),

7) Go all-in by calling a bet,

8) Call or fold to 3bet,

9) Fold.

Your decision will form the foundations for how the rest of the hand will be played out.

Keep in mind :

The vast majority of players at micro-level autopilot. (Money is very little – hardly worth to take play too seriously). In my opinion: Most people, who are playing at a micro-level. are doing it for fun, for spending time or/and to learn how to play properly (some sort of the beginners).

The vast majority of players at micro-level use standard rules for betting, raising and folding

The vast majority of players at the micro-level are predictable. The betting patterns, calling and folding frequencies are or stay the same for a long time. They are not thinking much about how or why they should change their game or habits. I do call them ''Habitual players''. You should attack ''habitual players'' as much You can. Did write an article about that long time ago – check it out. https://www.pokeryear-microcashgame.com/2018/08/attack-habits.html

Let start from the beginning:

1. Raise First In. Betting + EV

It will not hurt if You know Expected Values of Starting Hands. I mainly used two resources to make my own EV+ starting hands charts. 6Max and for Full ring:

1) https://www.tightpoker.com/poker_hands.html The statistics are based on 115,591,080 pair of pocket cards dealt at the real money tables

2) THE FIVE DECISION FACTORS FOR TEXAS HOLD’EM POKER by Sam Braids were he uses data originally published at http://www.PokerRoom.com. from the analysis of 122, 031, 244 actual hands played.

The results are pretty the same if you will put one next to another.

Those are MY new starting hands charts to use from now on. Just to play boring EV+ games and nothing else.

For 6 max

Position		RFI	RERAISE (3BET)			3 BET LIGHT R1I over 25 Fold 3 Bet over 70
			IP		OOP
1	EP
2	MP
3	CO
4	D
5	SB
6	BB

For Full Ring

Position		RFI	RERAISE (3BET)			3 BET LIGHT R1I over 25 Fold 3Bet over 70
			IP		OOP
1	EP1
2	EP2
3	MP1
4	MP2
5	HJ
6	CO
7	D
8	SB
9	BB

Keep in mind:

Only 40 of the 169 possible starting hands have produced a positive expected value. Rafly less than ¼ of the hands can be played profitably. Only every fifth hand can bring you back some chips if played in the right position and with the right strategy !?.

This takes you the other question: How much to bet?

Common advice is 3 - 4 BB if You are raising in First and add one extra BB for every limper if You will decide to enter pot after limpers.

The problem with this advice is – You will lose Your buy-in very fast if something goes ''wrong'' (not hitting hand at the flop, very aggressive opponent, 3 bets after raise, etc). You will put yourself unnecessarily in a vulnerable situation if you can avoid it by simply reducing the bet size.

Let me do bit math for You and show what will happen if you are betting 2BB (minimum), 2,5 BB or recommended 3 BB preflop.

Bet size	Pot + Blinds	Standard C bet (half pot) + Pot	Standard Turn Bet (half pot) + Pot	Standard River (half pot)	Total BB You are using to win POT
2BB 2 callers HU
3 callers MW
4 callers MW
2,5 BB 2 callers
3 callers
4 callers
3 BB 2 callers
3 callers
4 callers

EXAMPLE

If You are RFI 2 BB with draw in Your hand and willing to go till the end (river), it will cost for You with 2 players (HU) almost ¼ of Your Buy-in (23,25 BB) and to do this so in multiway pot with 4 players, will damage Your Buy in 60 %. plus.

RFI 3 BB with a draw and following with Your hand till river will cost You - HU 29, 25 BB and MW with 4 players 90,75 BB – Almost all Your Buy-In. 

After one hand You might be broke.

Of course, some hands You will win and some hands You will loose.

Taff statistic for this example is :

Holding any two suited cards You will hit a backdoor flush draw 42 % of the time. You need to be willing to see both Flop and Turn and possibly needing to bluff on the river to WIN THE POT.

It might look ''good'' on the flop and turn with Your marginal hand. Still, you are risking with a lot at HU (more than half of You buy-in) and even more MW (possible all Your buy-in). Keep in mind we are talking about the micro-level play and many, if not most players are willing to take risks just to see what happens.

Correct EV+ play is then You will bet preflop at least pot size. Which means you got to (semi)bluff from the beginning till the end if needed. For that, you have to select a wisely right opponent and willing to loose maybe all of You Buy in = 100 BB. Don't forget: In the moment, when you are approved to be wrong: ether with selection of the person(s)to pick up the fight or opponent(s) hitting hard or willing to see every Flop, Turn and River, Your next best move might be to hit the cashier button (again).

Is the Risk Rewarded? How many times you have to Hit from 10 to be it right? How long it will take for you to try and win back  100 BB? What is Your Win Rate on this Level? How long you have to sit in TILT and recover? How much will this kind play cost You, let say, next 15 minutes plus/ next hour? Is it worth to play any suited cards in every position every time? Think, maybe twice.

Holding any two suited cards You will hit pair 27 % of the time and Higher Your Top card is more likely You will WIN at the end.

Correct EV+ play is then You are betting Preflop at least half of the Pot. Pot odds You will need at the Flop and Turn are 3: 1. You will need to hit the bet button and double barrel this hand with big bets. Till, it does not matter, if you are very aggressive (which is recommended), but High card might not show up and Your opponent will call and hit with any two cards anyway. What will you do?

Till, is it Your aim for this session hit High cards and make the Higher Pair (one pair) and win the pot? I will remind you: You must be willing to go with Your hand till the turn (double barrel) at least and do it aggressively. There is a very big possibility ( 73%) You are not this ''lucky person'' and You will not hit the High Pair on the Flop. Keep in mind – Top Pair is not winning Pot every time ether. And you are giving yourself bigger change to Win pot by having higher kicker if possible

There is now a big difference between how did You start the betting round - 2 BB or 3 BB. Maybe 2,5BB is the wisest option?. Is there possible to use the ''Fear Factor'' against the opponent(s)? Can You afford and jump into MW pot? Maybe even HU is too much? Up to You – right. You are the BOSS.

More statistics:

Holding any two suited cards You will hit four same suites 11 % of the time:

Holding any two suited cards You will hit two pairs 2% of the time;

Holding any two suited cards You will hit flush and trips 1% of the time.

Last Three options You can't turn to + EV game. The only way to WIN is BLUFF.

Are the Chances too small this time to make a correct play?

This is only one example of possible Holdings and +EV game. I will come back to this further articles. Right now- Take Your time and study this table. Think about, perhaps, to have Your own strategy, think about ''smart'' play. Maybe sometimes it is best not to follow standard rules and regulations? I don't know the answer. You do.

My Rules and Reasons right now for Bet Sizing are:

• RFI Early position 2 BB

Mostly You are holding premium hands if deciding to bet. This is not a very smart move to scare opponent(s) away with ''good holdings'', This is not happening often enough. Also you might get 3 bets from opponent(s) which give You opportunity to 4 bet or call 3 bets with less amount.(usually 3bet size up to pot size/ keeping Pot small ten You will be OOP next betting round I good idea) Thinking one step ahead – You might be forced to Fold at the Flop or Turn. )not hitting, ad board texture, etc)

• RFI Middle and Late Position 2,5 BB

For many players at micro levels, the Middle Position is 'dark territory''. They know – You have to be tight (careful) at the Early Position and loose (very loose) at the Late position. Middle Position they just don't know what to do. My experience shows – most payers just will fold for any aggression. So. I will increase my bet size – 2,5 BB. Reason number two is – later is Your position fewer players You have to face... and (sometimes) Blind will know – next betting round they will be OOP. Reason three- bigger You bet size is – more callers and 3 bettors have to think about how much they are willing to fight back and how much it will cost. Is it worth for them every time? I don't think so.

I will not write about Blinds play in this article. We will do it in further ones. Tig in!
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