Stealing Blinds EV+ Part 2

Stealing blinds

The small and big blinds are the two worst positions at the poker table. Especially in micro stakes cash games.

Mostly given advice is …...'' stealing blinds should be an important part of your strategy.'' The problem is in micro stakes games that this is not working out very well. Most players are overly aggressive, really passive, or just don't care about their holdings much at all.

When you are planning to steal blinds whatever reason it might be, probably You aim to win the pot preflop and avoid game developing further streets. Risk is, Your holding is not good enough (when stealing) to stand the fight. Also opponent(s) might overplay You by betting and betting again. You will find yourself in tricky situations where you have to give up more often then you like or can stand. Do not forget TILT is lurking around the tables all the time. Frustration is just one step closer and You will find Yourself flapping around with marginal hands. Still, there are only two ways of making money poker game:

1. Make the best hand at the end of the betting round(s), or

2. Steal the pot.

How exactly to figure out the size of profitable stealing bet? Is it worth to steal at all?

The basic math for how often the raise needs to get through is this:

(Your Bet) the amount You risk/current pot size + (You Bet) the amount you risk

Example 1: Let's say the blinds are 0.01/0.02 which makes the pot size 0.03 chips. You're not in blinds, there are no other raisers before You and You decide to raise to 2 x the BB, 0.04 chips. You're risking 0.04 chips

0,04 / (0.03+0.04) = 0.571

Your raise has to work 57,1% of the time to show an immediate profit pre-flop (not accounting for post-flop play).

Example 2: Blinds 0.01/0.02 = Pot size 0.03. You are in SB, there is one limper before You. You decide to raise the same amount - 2BB or 0,04 chips. You are risking 0.03 chips. (as SB You are forced to put 0.01 in the pot already)

0.03/[0.03(blinds) + 0.02 (limper)] + 0.03 = 0.375

Your raise has to work approx 38% of the time to show an immediate profit pre-flop (not accounting for post-flop play).

I save Your time (if needed) and there is My Table for how often raise need to win pre-flop in different situations:

Situation ˃	No Raisers (not in blind)	1 Limper	2 Limpers	SB			BB
Bet size˅				Vs+1	Vs +2	BB	Vs +1	Vs +2	SB
2BB
2,5 BB
3 BB

I did mark chances accordingly for better visual remembering - blue 50 %, green under 50 % and red over 50 %.

Take Your time and study this table to make your conclusions. I will write down some of mine:

1. If YOU ARE NOT IN BLINDS AND THERE ARE NO RAISERS BEFORE YOU then stealing from the blinds is a very risky business. You need to win more than half of the pots where you are raising them. Higher is Your Bet size more often You have to win preflop. There is not a good reason to increase your bet size if Your mission is - STEAL.

Some Good spots to steal and/or increase Your bet might be:

A) You are against Opponent who will NOT defend their blinds much.

...........

EV+ decision table will look out like that after You're deciding to steal from Dealer position:

	Dealer (SB + BB left) FTS summary
2BB	100 x 60	90 x 70	80 x 80
2,5BB	100 x 70	90 x 70	80 x 80
3BB	100 x 70	90 x 70	80 x 80

You can steal from Dealer position with any two cards if you will find 2 players after You with Fold to Steal STATS like that. You are in profit with Your bet anyway.

B) Your holdings. Overall not any holding will give You enough hit % to be justified for bet/steal.

Best change You will get with ANY TWO SUITED CARDS

...........

Conclusion 1:

DECIDING TO STEAL FROM BLINDS IN ANY POSITION WITHOUT LIMPERS IN POT :

the best opponent is TIGHT PASSIVE PLAYER with high fold to steal stats and willing to give up often to flop and turn bets.

highest possible success to do it is with ANY TWO SUITED CARDS

REMEMBER: Your raising to win the small pot (pre-flop) and You have to be successful more then half of the time to be in profit.

2) MULTIWAY POTS.

A)

B)

Conclusion 2:

STEALING BLINDS IN MULTIWAY POT :

best opponents are TIGHT PASSIVE PLAYERS with high fold to steal stats and willing to give up often to flop and turn bets.

highest possible success to do it is with ANY TWO SUITED CARDS, BROADWAYS or/and A,K suited

More limpers in the game more correct You are to enter a pot with small raise.

REMEMBER: You will possibly be forced to play for BIG POT if the game develops further. This is very important to try and win pot pre-flop. Be very careful to choose opponents from whom You try to steal. Players are keener to stay in the game (with or without hand) after seeing the flop. You have to have (very)good post-flop skills to enter the pot with raise after limpers. There might be more bluffing involved in further streets from aggressive players. BE READY TO FOLD if you don't have odds to keep up the fight in FLOP and/or TURN.

3. BLINDS vs BLINDS BATTLE

When everyone folds to you in the SMALL BLIND, you’re going to play the hand out of position if big blind will call. There is very important to check Big Blind tendencies before You start to steal from them. STATS FTS and 3bet Steal are equally important. With limpers in hand, you have to pay attention to squeeze stats too. As a default, You want to 3 bet or fold then the SB after somebody is betting out (will write about defending blinds in another article). There are spots where flatting might be the right decision, but I doubt about it then playing micro stakes. You will give the opponent the right to see the flop without any more put in – free flop and after all, they have a position over You in the next round. Most players will see this move like weakness and will isolate You with small-sized 3 bet with any two cards. By holding bit better cards they can go all in and it is very had to call them. Even You might put them in some kind of hand it still might not be correct however good You think You are in hand readings. I think it is more correct to enter the pot with raise. Slow play with AA or KK might come into consideration then you are against an aggressive player who 3 bet steal a lot, but...Yeah

Looking back to the first table, you might try to steal with a 3BB bet from BB, then he/she is folding more than 65% to steal. You can do it with any two cards. It doesn't matter if you can fold Your hand after flopping for an aggressive attack. This is very hard to predict cards he/she is holding. Betting out with 2 BB, gives You Break Even point 50: 50, but be aware You are giving opponent very good Pot odds to call. Small bet from You might be a good reason to call wider than usual even for tight players.

The general point I'm trying to make is this – in BIG BLIND You will need less . equity to call a small blind raise – 40% against a min-raise and against two limpers it goes down to 22 %, You already have one blind invested, but it is still quite high % needed to force only one player in small blind to fold. A good reason to try and steal than in big blind is that there is no one to act behind you. Small Blind can't squeeze you out or exploit your weaker range. You are the one who's closing the action. Then STATS (FTS) are ''right'' calling and defending with more marginal hands might be the right decision. The biggest mistake probably is then You are giving up too easily after the flop. You need to be prepared to call at least one barrel with marginal holdings, and sometimes back-door draws. Good board textures for betting out are:

• Ace-high boards like AJ3
• Bricky boards like 442
• Broadway-heavy boards like KQ4

Don't forget Your opponent sometimes hits them, but you should be winning most of them, especially when your opponent has limp-called. Mostly it happens with middle (suited) connectors.

The hardest thing playing a hand from the blinds is that you must be ahead of your opponent raising range when you call. Blind vs blind battle it is very hard to predict. Both players had already invested and in micro-stake cash games, money doesn't matter that much at all.

Best advice probably will be - Learn to fold. Calling out of position is never going to be ideal. Everybody will lose in the long term. Check Your statistics. Sometimes, it’s better just to hold onto your chips and fold.

REMINDER

This is not an article about standard pre-flop raises with appropriate hand and position accordingly. This matter is discussed in the previous article https://www.pokeryear-microcashgame.com/2019/06/ev-game-part-1.html and there are not discussed situations where You are facing raise before You, 3 bet, 4 bet, squeeze or all-ins.

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